Special Report · Deep-Research Verified · Feb 28 → early Jul 2026
🚢

Construction Raw-Material Prices
The Iran-War Impact

Steel · Freight · Fuel · The Strait of Hormuz

● 20 claims confirmed● 5 killed in verification● Report 2 of 2
◕ Bottom Line

Shock peaked — now unwinding.

The 2026 US-Israel war on Iran + Strait of Hormuz closure spiked oil, fuel, freight and steel from March. But it already round-tripped: Brent back below $71 by 2 Jul (from a $126 peak), and UAE diesel was cut for July. The "current vs Feb 28" gap is now small on oil/fuel.

What stays hot: Steel + Freight
GCC steel supply tightened; container freight India→UAE went ~$300 → $3,500; war-risk surcharges $1,500–3,500/container; Hormuz re-closed. For your warehouse: steel + shipping are the line items to lock and de-risk — not fuel.
📊 Before / After · Dated, Verified

Peak vs now — the round-trip

ItemFeb 28 (pre-war)Peak (Apr–Jun)Now (early Jul)
Brent crude~$72/bbl$126 (+55–67%)<$71 — round-tripped
UAE diesel (retail)Dh2.52/LDh4.33 (+71.8%)Dh3.60 (first cut)
Freight India→UAE (20ft)~$300$3,500 (~11×)elevated
War-risk surcharge / container$0$1,500 std · $3,500 reeferstill applied
Saudi delivered rebar (GCC proxy)~2,150–2,210 SAR/t2,300–2,460 SAR/televated
Hormuz transits / day~130~22–40; 49 attacksstrait re-closed
UAE rebar / cement / concreteNo figure survived verification — treat as UNCONFIRMED
🕑 What Actually Happened

Oil round-tripped; shipping was the sharpest channel

Trigger
US-Israel war on Iran began 28 Feb 2026. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz (announced 4 Mar), cutting ~20–25% of seaborne oil/LNG. IEA did its largest-ever emergency stock release (~400M bbl).
Oil round-tripped
$72 → $126 (30 Apr) → below $71 (2 Jul). Back to pre-war. Strait re-closed early July — so volatility is not fully over.
Shipping = sharpest channel
Freight up ~11×, war-risk surcharges, insurance +40–50% on Gulf cargo, transits collapsed — raising delivered cost + lead time for ALL imported build materials into Khalifa / Jebel Ali / Hamriyah.
🏭 Net Impact on a Sharjah Warehouse Build

Where a steel-heavy build is exposed

Line itemShare of shell costWar exposure
Structural steel / rebar / cladding~25–35%HIGH — GCC steel +7–11% + freight + lead time
Shipping / logistics (imported)embeddedHIGH — freight + war-risk, worst channel
Fuel — site plant + transport~5–10%WAS high (+60–72%), now UNWINDING
Cement / concrete / aggregate (local)~20–30%LOW-MED — local, but unconfirmed
MEP / electricals (copper, aluminium)~15–25%MED — aluminium flagged, unconfirmed
⚠ No source gave a verified % increase for total Sharjah warehouse cost. Analyst estimate: at the Apr–Jun peak a materials-heavy build likely ran ~10–20% above the Feb 28 baseline; by early July, a residual ~5–12% concentrated in steel + shipping lead-time. Not verified — model with live quotes.
✅ Timing Upshot for Your Build

You are past the worst of the spike — not into it.

↓ Fuel relief is real
Diesel already cut. Don't lock at panic-peak prices.
⚠ Steel + freight are sticky
Strait re-closed; lead times persist into H2 2026. Secure terms now.
⚖ Stay flexible on the rest
Lock the volatile inputs; keep the stable ones open.
📋 Procurement Playbook

Six moves to de-risk the build

🔒
Lock steel early, fixed-price
Biggest + stickiest exposure. Fix tonnage + price before ground-break.
🇦🇪
Buy GCC/local, not Asia-import
Emirates Steel / Saudi delivered avoids the freight + war-risk + Hormuz stack.
💵
Cap freight + war-risk in contracts
Surcharge caps + fixed freight. Don't accept open-ended pass-through.
⛽
Fuel escalation clause, not pre-buy
Fuel is unwinding — a capped clause beats locking today's diesel.
📦
Phase procurement + 10–15% contingency
Strait re-closed = re-spike risk into H2 2026. Stage buys.
🔁
Dual-source cladding + MEP
Aluminium/copper/insulation flagged but unconfirmed — 2 quotes each, one GCC.
The War Doesn't Change the Verdict

It changes how you procure. Cost relief on oil is a tailwind; steel + freight discipline is the guardrail. The yield model only holds if steel + freight are fixed before break-ground.

🔗 Companion · Report 1 of 2
The full buy-land-and-build decision, yield model & ownership route. Read the Sharjah warehouse decision report →
⚠ Severe time-sensitivity — the snapshot moves week to week. Refuted claims excluded: war-risk premium "+1,000–2,400%", "diesel more than doubled", $119 Brent peak. Steel/freight figures are GCC/Saudi/India proxies, not Sharjah. War-attributable % for total build cost is an analyst estimate.
◕ azizsaif.com · Decision Report 2 of 2 · Confirm all figures with live supplier quotes
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