01 · Obvious
Clear
Recipe, pre-flight check, surgical scrub. Van Halen's "no brown M&Ms" rule showed if a venue had read the safety specs.
→ Follow the checklist
02 · Hidden
Complicated
Chest pain in an ER, a mortgage, tax, due diligence. The answer exists. You need skill to find it.
→ Slow down, get the right expert
03 · Only in hindsight
Complex
Merging two cultures, getting staff to use AI, raising a teenager. Experts help less here.
→ Small tests, adjust as you go
04 · Broken
Chaotic
Tylenol 1982: J&J pulled 31 million bottles first and asked why later. Fires, crashes, crises.
→ Act now, stabilise, then analyse
DART: find your system 4 steps
DDeconstructBreak it into parts. Stable or moving?
AAnalyseCause and effect: obvious, findable, later, or gone?
RRecogniseSeen this pattern, or one like it?
TTestSmallest test first. In chaos, just act.
3 traps that fool smart people
- Wrong system. Right tool, wrong problem.
- Cobra effect. Delhi paid per dead cobra, people bred cobras. Reward the wrong thing and people game it.
- Slow feedback. Pleasure today, damage in decades. Smoking is the classic case.
See it from outside
- Mentor with no stake in your story
- Data, which ignores your narrative
- Time: you vs a week, month, year ago
Skip false either/or choices. The hardest system to redesign is the story in your own head.
Monday morning: problem → move
| Month-end close runs late every month | ClearWrite the checklist, stick to it |
| VAT on a cross-border sale | ComplicatedAsk the tax specialist |
| Team won't use the new AI tool | ComplexPilot with 3 people, adjust weekly |
| Bank froze the account on payroll day | ChaoticPay staff another way today, investigate tomorrow |
Want the detail?
Page 2 has the video, every example explained, why AI adoption counts as a complex system, and the FAQ.
Read the full notes →