SUZLON · Renewables — Wind-turbine OEM & O&M · Data as of 17–18 June 2026
FY26 was, by management's own description, the best year in a decade — record deliveries, strong operating leverage and a clean, net-cash balance sheet.
| Revenue | ₹16,679 cr (+54% YoY) |
| EBITDA | ₹3,022 cr (+63% YoY) |
| EBITDA margin | 18.1% (vs 17.1% FY25) |
| PAT | ₹3,153 cr (+~53% YoY) |
| WTG deliveries (FY26) | 2,456 MW (record) |
| Q4 FY26 revenue | ₹5,468 cr (+44% YoY) |
| Q4 FY26 PAT | ₹1,114 cr (−6% YoY, +150% QoQ) |
| Net cash (31 Mar 26) | ₹2,384 cr (debt-free) |
Note the Q4 PAT dip (−6% YoY) despite a 44% revenue jump — a reminder that margins and tax/other-income swings can mask the topline story quarter to quarter.
A standing section in every note: balance-sheet quality, any lending/credit exposure, and how the rating agencies score the issuer. For Suzlon the story is one of de-risking — from a near-default, deeply leveraged group to a clean, net-cash balance sheet.
| Balance sheet | Net cash ₹2,384 cr (31 Mar 26) — debt-free, vs heavy net debt pre-FY23 |
| Deleveraging | Gross debt cut sharply via equity raises, OTS/restructuring and rising operating cash flow |
| Rating trajectory | Long-term rating upgraded by CARE / CRISIL / ICRA through FY24–FY26 as leverage fell (latest in the investment-grade band, outlook Stable→Positive)* |
| Lending / NBFC exposure | None — Suzlon is a manufacturer & RE developer, not a lender; no credit book, no NBFC asset-quality risk |
| Why it matters | Net-cash status removes the refinancing overhang that long capped the multiple and self-funds "Suzlon 2.0" capex without fresh dilution |
The standard, generalised: where a company we cover does run a credit book or is pushing into NBFC/lending, this section instead breaks down the credit mix, asset quality and rating-agency view of that book. India's NBFC credit is growing >17%, but easy disbursal inflates near-term growth while raising delinquency risk — so the rating-agency trajectory, not the loan-growth headline, is the tell. *Exact notch varies by agency and date; treat as directional and verify the latest rating rationale.
| JM Financial | BUY · ₹65 (25× FY28E EPS) |
| Motilal Oswal | BUY · ~₹74 (flagged ~55% upside earlier in 2026) |
| Street consensus (avg) | ≈ ₹64–66 |
| Consensus range | Low ₹52 → High ₹82 |
| Scenario | Target | Implied | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | ₹78–82 | +34% to +41% | FY27 deliveries ≥3.3 GW, margin hold, big order wins, re-rating |
| Base | ₹65–70 | +12% to +21% | In-line execution, order-book conversion, stable policy |
| Bear | ₹40–48 | −17% to −31% | Execution slip, FII selling, margin pressure, macro/tariff drag |
The weight of sell-side opinion is constructive, clustering around ₹65–70 over 12 months (~12–21% upside). Targets are scenario-dependent and have been revised both ways through 2025–26 — treat them as a probability cone, not a promise.
Because this is a bet on future delivery, trailing multiples understate the risk — so we anchor on forward earnings and a discounted-cash-flow cross-check rather than the TTM P/E alone.
| P/E — TTM (FY26) | ~25.3x (EPS ~₹2.26) |
| P/E — FY27E | ~19–22x (consensus) |
| P/E — FY28E | ~16–20x (consensus) |
| EV/EBITDA — FY27E | ~16–18x (EBITDA est ~₹4,500 cr) |
| PEG (FY26–28E) | <1 on ~25–30% EPS CAGR |
| WACC | ~12.5% |
| Terminal growth | ~5% |
| FCF FY27–31 | Scales with 10 GW ramp + O&M annuity |
| Base-case fair value | ~₹55–68 (straddles CMP) |
| Bull / Bear | ₹78–88 / ₹38–48 |
Mind the spread: aggressive desks model FY27–28 EBITDA of ₹4,500–5,500 cr, implying mid-to-high-teens forward P/E; more conservative PAT assumptions (e.g., JM's ₹65 target = 25× its FY28E EPS) keep it above 20x. Either way the stock is not cheap on the forward, and the DCF base case lands roughly at today's price — so the upside is execution-driven re-rating, not a valuation gap waiting to close.
Read this before trusting the FY27–28 numbers. The entire bull case rests on operating leverage — revenue growth converting into an expanding EBITDA margin (18.1% → ~20%). That conversion is the thesis. The single fastest way it breaks: a quarter where revenue grows but EBITDA falls (margin contracts). If that happens, the forward estimates and price targets in this note can no longer be justified as written and should be treated as suspended until margins re-stabilise.
We flag the thesis as broken / under review on any of: (1) YoY EBITDA down while YoY revenue is up; (2) EBITDA margin below ~16% for two consecutive quarters; (3) order book falling QoQ alongside weaker realisations; (4) a slide back toward net debt. A soft headline quarter alone isn't fatal — a quarter that inverts the revenue→margin link is.
Suzlon enters FY27 in its strongest shape in over a decade: record FY26 financials, a debt-free balance sheet, a record order book, clear market leadership in a structurally growing market, and a credible — if ambitious — “Suzlon 2.0” plan. The 6–12 month risk/reward is skewed positive on consensus (~₹65–70, +12–21%), but the stock is priced for flawless execution and is high-beta — so sizing and entry levels matter as much as the thesis. Watch FY27 delivery run-rate, order inflows, EBITDA margin and FII flows as the swing factors.