SUZLON₹58.44+1.5%

NHPC₹75.94-0.8%

NIFTY5023,870+0.19%

SENSEX76,391+0.25%

NIFTY50022,982-0.12%

MIDCAP10061,723+3.24%

BPCL₹292.10-0.78%

HCC₹23.51+2.1%

GOLD₹15,638/g+4.07%

BRENT$96.78+31.24%

USDINR₹96.56+2.29%

NASDAQ26,972+8.36%

SUZLON₹58.44+1.5%

NHPC₹75.94-0.8%

NIFTY5023,870+0.19%

SENSEX76,391+0.25%

NIFTY50022,982-0.12%

MIDCAP10061,723+3.24%

BPCL₹292.10-0.78%

HCC₹23.51+2.1%

GOLD₹15,638/g+4.07%

BRENT$96.78+31.24%

USDINR₹96.56+2.29%

NASDAQ26,972+8.36%

Vol. 01 · No. 08 · AUGUST 2026 UPDATE · India Equity Intelligence DUBAI · SUNDAY · 26 JULY 2026 · For personal research only — not investment advice

India Equity Intelligence · June 2026

India in a
Risk-Off Storm.
Macro Bets Still Win.

Markets under pressure from West Asia crisis, FPI selling, and rupee weakness — yet selectivity rewards the disciplined investor.

23,870

Nifty 50 (23 Jul)

−5.4%

1Y Nifty Return

₹56KCr

FPI Outflow May

5.25%

RBI Repo Rate

₹96.56

USD/INR

$96.78

Brent Crude

Disclaimer: This playbook is prepared for personal research and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data sourced from publicly available information. Consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before acting. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

● New · August 2026 Update Data as of close, Thursday 23 July 2026 · Dubai · Research & education only

The Relief Rally Died. Now Comes the Reckoning.

Six days changed the picture. July's foreign-buying rebound reversed, crude broke $95 on the widening US–Iran conflict, the rupee slid to 96.6, and Q1 FY27 bank earnings disappointed badly. The Nifty gave back everything and more — closing 23 July at 23,870, some 9.3% below its high. Two of India's biggest export sectors, IT and generic pharma, are now facing structural — not cyclical — problems at the same time.

Nifty 50 · 23 Jul

23,870

▼ −1.9% vs Jul ed.

Sensex · 23 Jul

76,391

▼ −2.3% vs Jul ed.

Nifty Bank

56,592

▼ −3.3% vs Jul ed.

Nifty · 1-Year

−5.4%

▼ 2-yr CAGR −1.3%

USD / INR

96.6

▼ −11.7% in 1 yr

Brent Crude

$95+

▼ US–Iran escalation

RBI Repo Rate

5.25%

MPC · 5 Aug

Index	23-Jul-2026	1-Year	2-Yr CAGR	3-Yr CAGR	5-Yr CAGR
Nifty 50	23,869.6	−5.4%	−1.3%	+6.5%	+8.5%
Sensex	76,391.4	−7.7%	−2.5%	+4.6%	+7.6%
Nifty Bank	56,592.0	−1.1%	+4.5%	+7.1%	+10.1%

What Broke Since July

Crude above $95. The widening US–Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption pushed Brent past $95. India imports ~85% of its oil — this hits inflation, the rupee and the fiscal maths simultaneously.
FPI buying reversed. July's ≈+₹15,157 cr inflow gave way to renewed selling (23 Jul: FIIs −₹2,999 cr vs DIIs +₹2,947 cr). Roughly ₹2.3 lakh crore left Indian equities Jan–May 2026. Domestic funds remain the only bid.
Bank earnings disappointed. Axis and HDFC Bank each fell ~6% on Q1 FY27 results, Kotak over 3%. Banks are ~20% of the Nifty, so this drags the index disproportionately.
Rupee at 96.6 — down 11.7% in a year — plus rising US Treasury yields and a firm dollar, reducing the relative appeal of emerging markets.

Into the 5 August MPC

Repo held at 5.25% with a neutral stance since 5 Jun, citing resilient domestic growth against external risks. Next decision 5 August 2026.
The bind: crude at $95 and a 96.6 rupee both feed inflation, which argues against cutting — while weak earnings and FPI outflows argue for support.
Watch: the June/July CPI prints, monsoon progress, and whether the US pharma tariff gets a formal proclamation.

"July was a relief rally on flows. August is the bill. Two of India's export engines are being repriced at once — this is not a dip to buy blind."

Stock Market Playbook · August 2026 update

IT — A Structural De-Rating Not a dip

The top-5 IT pack has lost ~46% of combined market value since its August 2024 peak — from ≈₹33.71 lakh cr to ≈₹18.15 lakh cr. For scale: Reliance alone is ₹17.65 lakh cr. The entire top-5 is now worth about one Reliance.
Nifty IT is down ~32% in CY2026 vs ~8% for the Nifty, touching its lowest level since May 2021.
Headcount confirms it is real, not sentiment. TCS cut roughly 23,000–25,000 employees over FY26 — including a single-quarter net decline of 11,151 in Dec 2025. Accenture cut FY26 guidance to 3–4%.
The trap: TCS at 16x and Infosys at 13x look cheap. That is exactly what a de-rating looks like on the way down. July's edition suggested adding IT selectively on results strength — that call is withdrawn.

Pharma — Tariff Overhang Unresolved

21 July 2026: a three-phase tariff on imported generics was announced — zero until 1 Aug 2028, then 100% for one year, then 200%. So far only via social media; no formal proclamation, legal basis or exemption list exists.
The exposure: ~35% of India's pharma exports go to the US, and over 95% of those shipments are generics.
The offset: the domestic Indian pharmaceutical market grew 16% YoY in June 2026 — its strongest month in over two years, with Q1 FY27 growth at 13.5%.
The read: this splits pharma in two. Domestic-branded franchises are insulated; US-generic exporters are not. Own the first, avoid the second until the legal text lands.

Starter Basket — Ten Names Screened on Five Tests

Screened from ~126 liquid NSE names on 3-year CAGR, 2-year CAGR, 1-year return, annualised volatility and worst peak-to-trough drawdown — simultaneously — then filtered by hand for sector spread and for exposure to the IT and pharma risks above. Prices at 23–24 July 2026, adjusted for corporate actions.

Stock	Business	Price ₹	3Y CAGR	2Y CAGR	1Y	Vol	Worst DD	P/E	Consensus
ICICI Bank	Private bank	1,433	14.0%	9.1%	−2.7%	18.9%	−18.4%	18.5	+21%
State Bank of India	PSU bank	1,015	20.2%	11.2%	26.7%	24.3%	−23.9%	11.1	+19%
Bharti Airtel	Telecom	1,898	30.1%	15.7%	−0.7%	20.8%	−18.8%	42.7	+21%
Eicher Motors	Royal Enfield	7,628	33.7%	26.1%	41.3%	25.4%	−19.6%	38.0	+5%
TVS Motor	2-wheelers, EV	3,870	44.2%	26.2%	38.8%	26.8%	−26.2%	53.8	+8%
Torrent Pharma	Domestic branded pharma	4,962	38.1%	26.8%	42.2%	22.5%	−17.0%	77.5	−1%
Apollo Hospitals	Hospitals, pharmacy	8,806	19.7%	17.4%	19.9%	21.1%	−18.5%	65.4	+7%
Marico	FMCG · Parachute, Saffola	856	18.2%	14.9%	22.2%	21.8%	−16.7%	62.9	+7%
Titan	Jewellery, watches	4,677	16.6%	16.3%	34.7%	22.3%	−22.5%	82.0	+8%
Cummins India High risk	Gensets, power equipment	5,601	45.6%	27.6%	59.2%	30.7%	−34.3%	65.8	Hold, +2%

Vol = annualised daily volatility over 3 years. Worst DD = largest peak-to-trough fall in that period — the number that tells you what you would have had to sit through. Consensus = analyst mean target vs current price. Only three names cleared 25% over three years while still compounding over two and one: Torrent, TVS and Cummins. The rest earn their place on drawdown control, not raw return.

The 3-year CAGR trap — the single most useful thing in this update. Several stocks show a beautiful 3-year number that is entirely one explosive year in 2023–24 followed by two years of losses. Anyone screening on "3-year returns" alone walks straight into them.

Stock	3-Yr CAGR	2-Yr CAGR	Last 1 Yr	Worst Drawdown
IRFC	+38.1%	−31.3%	−34.2%	−58.6%
REC Ltd	+33.5%	−19.3%	−5.9%	−48.6%
Power Finance Corp	+33.8%	−7.9%	+1.2%	−37.6%
HAL	+34.5%	−1.8%	−1.1%	−44.5%
Trent	+19.2%	−26.0%	−43.8%	−73.3%

Bench — Good Names Left Out

Federal Bank — 3Y 39%, 2Y 34%, drawdown only −18%. Excellent on the numbers, but up 68% in twelve months. Worth owning after a pullback, not now.
Hindalco — 3Y 31% at a P/E of 15.7 with +18% consensus upside. Cheapest strong performer found, but commodity cyclicals are the wrong first stock.
Sun Pharma — lowest volatility in the entire universe at 19.4%. Held back only because the basket already carries two healthcare names.
Reliance — 3-year CAGR of just 1.4%, so it fails a momentum screen entirely, yet carries the largest consensus upside on the board at +32% and benefits from high crude. A value idea.
HDFC Bank — +38% consensus upside at 16.6x, but down 25% over the last year. Do not catch it until earnings stop deteriorating.

How to Deploy From Here

Core before satellites. For a first-time investor, 60–70% into a Nifty 50 or Nifty 500 index SIP, with individual names as the remaining 30–40%. Ten stocks is not a diversified portfolio on its own.
Stagger over 6–8 months. Three unresolved events sit directly ahead: the 5 August RBI decision, the formal text of the US pharma tariff, and crude at $95 with an active conflict. Split each position into 3–4 monthly buys.
Equal weight with one exception — halve Cummins; it is the only name with a −34% drawdown history.
Minimum horizon five years. The Nifty returned 6.5% over three years and 8.5% over five. Shorter horizons in this tape are a coin toss.
Honest base case: 12–16% annualised, not 25%. Six of the ten trade above 50x, so the businesses can keep performing while the stocks go nowhere for a year or two as valuations normalise.

If You Are Investing From the UAE

This needs the NRI route — an NRE or NRO account linked to PIS (Portfolio Investment Scheme) permission from an Indian bank, plus an NRI demat account.
Capital gains are deducted at source for NRIs rather than self-declared, and repatriation limits differ between NRE and NRO.
Confirm residency status and current LTCG/STCG rates with a CA before the first trade. The tax setup, not the stock picks, is what usually catches first-time NRI investors.

Return, volatility and drawdown figures computed from NSE daily closing prices to 23–24 July 2026, adjusted for splits and bonuses. Fundamentals and analyst consensus from Yahoo Finance and may lag filings. Market context: Business Standard, BusinessToday, Bloomberg, India-Briefing, Anand Rathi. Research and education only — not investment advice. Verify against company filings and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before acting. The July 2026 update and the full June deep-dives, tables and PDFs remain below, untouched.

● New · July 2026 Update Data as of close, Friday 17 July 2026 · Dubai · Research & education only

Relief Rally — India Rebounds as Foreign Buyers Return.

The June risk-off storm has eased. After four straight months of selling, foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers in July (+₹15,157 cr month-to-date), an IT- and financials-led rally pushed the Nifty back above 24,300, and a strong start to the Q1 FY27 earnings season lifted sentiment — even as a weaker rupee, elevated crude and rich valuations keep the tape two-sided.

Nifty 50 · 17 Jul

24,334

▲ +3.3% vs Jun ed.

Sensex · 17 Jul

78,151

▲ +4.5% vs Jun ed.

Nifty Bank

58,521

▲ +7.9% vs Jun ed.

FPI Flow · Jul MTD

+₹15.2KCr

▲ Net buyers

USD / INR

96.29

▼ Rupee weaker

Brent Crude

$87

▼ Volatile (Iran)

RBI Repo Rate

5.25%

Held · neutral

Index	17-Jul-2026	1-Day	vs June Ed. (29-May)
Nifty 50	24,334.30	+1.09%	+3.34%
Sensex	78,151.45	+1.25%	+4.51%
Nifty Bank	58,521.40	+1.63%	+7.90%

What Changed Since June

FPIs flipped to buyers. After net selling in Mar–Jun (May alone was ≈−₹56K cr), FPIs bought ≈₹15,157 cr of equities in July MTD (CDSL) — driven by a steadier rupee, easing energy-price fears and de-escalating geopolitics.
Benchmarks recovered. Nifty reclaimed the 24,000 zone and closed 17 Jul at 24,334; Sensex above 78,150. Banks led, with Nifty Bank +7.9% off the June edition levels.
Daily flows stayed two-sided. DIIs kept absorbing foreign selling on weak days (e.g. 16 Jul: FIIs −₹4,206 cr vs DIIs +₹2,986 cr) — the month is a net-buy story, not a straight line.
Rupee & oil are the swing factors. USD/INR near 96.3 (weaker vs ~95.0 in June); Brent around $87 and jumpy on US–Iran / Strait of Hormuz headlines — India imports ~85% of its crude.

Macro & RBI

No July MPC meeting. RBI held the repo at 5.25% with a neutral stance on 5 Jun; next policy is 3–5 August 2026. SDF 5.00%, MSF 5.50%.
Growth trimmed, inflation nudged up. RBI cut FY27 GDP to 6.6% (from 6.9%) and raised FY27 CPI to 5.1% (from 4.6%) — quarterly CPI path 4.2% / 5.1% / 5.9% / 5.9%.
Watch into August: monsoon progress, the June/July CPI prints, crude, and the rupee will set the tone for the 5 Aug decision.

"July is a relief rally on flows and earnings — not an all-clear. Stay selective; let the rupee and crude tell you the risk."

Stock Market Playbook · July 2026 update

Q1 FY27 Earnings Season — Early Read

IT led the rebound. TCS opened the season (9 Jul); the pack posted revenue ≈+18% YoY with EBIT margins expanding ~121 bps, though sequential constant-currency growth slowed to ~0.3%. Tech Mahindra beat and was the top Nifty gainer (+3.96% on 17 Jul); Wipro missed; HCLTech slipped ~1% post-results. Infosys reports 20–25 Jul and may trim the top end of its FY27 guidance toward 1.5–3%.
Financials strong. Jio Financial Services more than doubled its June-quarter profit; heavyweight bank results — HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak, Axis — were due through 18–25 Jul and are the season's swing factor.
Heavyweight in focus: Reliance Industries results awaited; broad-market misses (CEAT, Heritage Foods) show the read-through is stock-specific, not a blanket beat.
Takeaway for the book: the June edition's macro/capex-infra-defence tilt still holds; add IT and private financials selectively on results-driven strength, and size around crude/rupee risk.

Sources: NSE/BSE closing data (17 Jul 2026), CDSL FPI flow data, RBI MPC statement (5 Jun 2026), and company Q1 FY27 results. Figures are provisional and for research/education only — not investment advice. The full deep-dives, tables and PDFs below remain the June 2026 edition.

All Reports · June 2026 Edition

Report Dashboard

Every briefing & download in this edition — sourced via JRK Research Monthly Insights.

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Top 20 Conviction Picks

The month's high-conviction India equity ideas with entry zones & rationale.

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Deep Dive🌬️

Suzlon Energy — Deep Dive

54% revenue growth, net-cash balance sheet & the "Suzlon 2.0" pivot, in full.

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Open the live note and use "Save as PDF" — always matches the current page (credit profile, forward P/E & DCF included).

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One-page printable digest of this edition's watchlist & key levels.

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Full Brief · India Equity

Stock Market Playbook — June 2026

Markets, macro, sector rotation, FPI/DII flows and the Top-20 conservative book — the complete monthly brief in one PDF.

PDF2 pages · ~13 KB

Equity Report · Reliance / Jio

Jio — All Companies

Reliance Industries, Jio Financial Services and the still-private Jio Platforms IPO — every listed Jio entity, with prices, valuation and the bull/bear case.

PDF2 pages · ~12 KB

Deep Dive · Renewables

Suzlon Energy — Q4FY26

Record FY26 (+54% revenue), a net-cash balance sheet, and the “Suzlon 2.0” 10 GW target. Financials, SWOT and analyst targets. BUY · target ₹75.

PDF2 pages · ~12 KB

Deep Dive · Hydro PSU

NHPC Limited — Q4FY26

India’s largest hydro generator — regulated cash flows, FY26 PAT +25%, GoI 62.5% owned. Income statement, Q4 highlights and key risks. BUY · target ₹90.

PDF1 page · ~8 KB

Portfolio · ₹50L Book

Top 20 Indian Stocks — June 2026

A conservative fresh-deployment book tilted ~50% to the capex–infra–defence cycle, with full sector allocation and the 20 holdings.

PDF2 pages · ~15 KB

Indian Market Outlook

Index Performance · May 2026 · 1M / 3M / 1Y Returns

Nifty 50

23,548

▼ −1.87% 1M · −6.48% 3M

Sensex

74,776

▼ −2.78% 1M · −8.01% 3M

Nifty Midcap 100

61,724

▲ +3.24% 1M · +7.50% 1Y

Nifty Smallcap 100

18,139

▲ +0.73% 1M · +1.43% 1Y

Nifty Bank

54,239

▼ −1.14% 1M · −10.39% 3M

Nifty Next 50

71,074

▲ +2.05% 1M · +6.46% 1Y

Index	29-May-2026	1M	3M	1Y
Sensex	74,775.74	−2.78%	−8.01%	−8.40%
Nifty 50	23,547.75	−1.87%	−6.48%	−4.86%
Nifty Next 50	71,073.65	+2.05%	+1.95%	+6.46%
Nifty Bank	54,239.20	−1.14%	−10.39%	−2.71%
Nifty Midcap 100	61,723.80	+3.24%	+4.41%	+7.50%
Nifty Smallcap 100	18,138.80	+0.73%	+7.15%	+1.43%

Global Markets Snapshot

Index	29-May-2026	1M	3M	1Y
Dow Jones	51,032.46	+2.78%	+4.19%	+20.88%
Nasdaq	26,972.62	+8.36%	+18.99%	+40.66%
S&P 500	7,580.06	+5.15%	+10.19%	+28.21%
Nikkei 225	66,329.50	+11.88%	+12.71%	+74.71%
KOSPI	8,476.15	+28.45%	+35.75%	+214.20%
FTSE 100	10,409.28	+0.29%	−4.59%	+19.42%

"May 2026 was a risk-off, macro-driven month where global developments, currency weakness, and commodity shocks overshadowed domestic growth optimism — resulting in a cautious yet selectively resilient market environment."

Market Intelligence · May 2026 Monthly Insights

India's Key Macroeconomic Highlights

CPI · WPI · IIP · PMI · Policy Rates · FPI/DII Flows

3.48%

CPI Apr'26

8.30%

WPI Apr'26

4.90%

IIP Apr'26

55.0

Mfg PMI May'26

5.25%

RBI Repo Rate

4.40%

Fiscal Deficit (FY26 GDP%)

India Macroeconomic Highlights

CPI (Apr'26): 3.48% — Rural 3.74%, Urban 3.16%; food at 4.20%
WPI (Apr'26): 8.30% — driven by fuel, crude oil, manufactured goods; Fuel & Power up 18.22% MoM
IIP (Apr'26): +4.9% YoY — Manufacturing sub-index up 6.2%, resilient despite geopolitical stress
Manufacturing PMI (May'26): 55.0 — 3-month high; strong domestic demand, higher new orders
Fiscal Deficit FY26: 4.4% of GDP (₹15.19L Cr) — met revised target; FY27 April deficit ₹3.62L Cr (21.4% of annual goal)
Credit Growth: 16.2% YoY vs Deposit Growth 12.2% — strong demand, potential funding pressure

Policy Rates (RBI — June 2026)

Repo Rate: 5.25% — held steady; next MPC Jun 5, 2026
Reverse Repo: 3.35%
SLR: 18.00% · CRR: 3.00%
Bank Rate / MSF: 5.50%
Repo cut 1.25% since 2024 peak of 6.50% — easing cycle paused
Market pricing ~150bps potential hikes on West Asia inflation pressure

Key Economic Updates

India GDP FY26 Q4: ~7.3% estimated
FY27 projection: 6.7% (crude + El Niño risk)
Gross GST May'26: ₹1.94L Cr (+3.2% YoY)
Net Direct Tax FY26: ₹23.40L Cr (+5.12% YoY)
Total Exports Apr'26: $80.80B (+13.59% YoY)

FPI / DII Activity — May 2026

−₹55,963Cr

Total FPI (May'26)

+₹82,669Cr

Total DII (May'26)

−₹23,735Cr

FPI Week 4

+₹25,803Cr

DII Week 4

May'26

−₹55,963Cr FPI

May'26

+₹82,669Cr DII

Apr'26

−₹1,42,960Cr FPI

Mar'26

−₹67,804Cr FPI

Jan'26

−₹41,435Cr FPI

Nifty 50 Technical Levels

Current Level: 23,483. Resistance 1: 23,825 · Resistance 2: 24,050 · Support 1: 23,153 · Support 2: 22,980. Outlook: Neutral to Bullish. Buy on Dips strategy preferred — 23,153–22,980 is the key accumulation zone. Nifty Bank (53,714): Resistance 54,580–55,050 · Support 52,825–52,050.

Sectoral Performance — May 2026

Winners · Losers · Rotation Signals

Nifty IT

+4.74%

13,440.95 · 1Y +46.20%

Nifty FMCG

+3.18%

15,392.75 · 1Y +10.82%

Nifty Ind Defence

+2.18%

15,889.90 · 1Y +12.30%

Nifty Healthcare

+1.49%

9,107.50 · 3M +12.07%

Nifty Auto

+1.62%

26,338.45 · 1Y +12.92%

Nifty Consumer Dur.

+0.26%

40,878.00 · 1Y +13.93%

Nifty Chemicals

−6.25%

34,943.55 · 1Y −6.47%

Nifty Ind Manufacturing

−7.82%

2,958.90 · 1Y −22.54%

Nifty Fin Service

−3.31%

49,383.35 · 1Y −10.67%

Nifty Bank

−1.14%

54,239.20 · 3M −10.39%

Nifty Energy

−1.18%

25,354.00 · 3M −9.03%

Nifty Infrastructure

−0.93%

29,080.15 · 1Y −22.08%

"May 2026 highlighted a clear shift toward defensives and commodities — investors preferred sectors offering earnings visibility. Financials, cyclicals, and consumption-linked sectors lagged."

Sector Intelligence · May 2026

Suzlon Energy — Q4FY26 Result Update

NSE: SUZLON · Renewable Utilities · BUY · Target ₹75

Deep Dive · Renewable Energy · Q4FY26

Suzlon's Record Year:
54% Revenue Growth,
Net Cash, "Suzlon 2.0"

India's largest wind energy solutions provider delivered its strongest-ever annual performance in FY26 — and then raised the stakes with an audacious 10 GW annual sales target by FY31.

NSE: SUZLON · CMP ₹58.44 (18 Jun'26) · Market Cap ₹80,284 Cr · P/E (TTM) 25.3x

FY26 was a breakout year. Revenue surged 54% YoY to ₹16,679 Cr, EBITDA grew 63% to ₹3,022 Cr, and PAT rose 53% to ₹3,163 Cr. The company achieved record India deliveries of 2,456 MW (vs 1,550 MW in FY25), with 830 MW in Q4 alone — the highest-ever quarterly delivery. EBITDA margin expanded 100 bps to 18.1%.

The order book stood at 5.9 GW at year-end (peak 6.4 GW in Q3) — providing multi-year revenue visibility. The S144 turbine platform accounts for ~88% of the order book. The company is now net-cash positive at ₹2,384 Cr, having turned from a deeply leveraged balance sheet just years ago.

On June 3, 2026, Suzlon unveiled "Suzlon 2.0" — a pivot from wind turbine manufacturer to full-stack renewable energy solutions provider, targeting 10 GW annual RE sales and 70 GW AUM by FY31. Four verticals: RE Tech, RE DevCo, RE Projects, and RE Asset Management Services.

Read the full Suzlon deep-dive → ⤓ Open & save Suzlon research (PDF)

Company Details

Suzlon Energy

NSE: SUZLON · Renewable Utilities · Face Value ₹2

₹58.44

CMP (18 Jun)

₹75

Target Price

+28%

Upside

₹80,284Cr

Market Cap

25.3x

P/E (TTM)

₹38.19–68.30

52W Range

Valuation: 23x FY28E EPS = ₹75 target. FY27E PE 20.2x · FY28E PE 16.6x — attractive. 12–18 month investment horizon.

BUY

Shareholding — FY26

Shareholder Mix

FII-heavy; low promoter is a governance watch

Promoter

11.73%

FII

23.85%

DII

9.18%

Public

55.24%

Segment Revenue — FY26

WTG

82%

O&M

15%

Forge

Income Statement — ₹ Cr

Particulars	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue	6,520	5,971	6,529	10,890	16,732	22,421	27,353
Revenue Growth YoY	98%	−8%	9%	67%	54%	34%	22%
EBITDA	766	832	1,029	1,827	3,022	4,484	5,471
EBITDA Margin	12%	14%	16%	17%	18%	20%	20%
Finance Cost	735	421	164	255	462	—	—
PAT	−177	2,887	660	2,072	3,163	3,650	4,459
PAT Margin	−3%	49%	10%	19%	19%	16%	16%
Diluted EPS (₹)	−0.20	0.10	0.49	1.53	2.31	2.66	3.25

Q4FY26 Quarterly Income Statement

Particulars	Q4FY26	Q3FY26	QoQ	Q4FY25	YoY
Sales	5,493	4,236	+30%	3,790	+45%
Operating Profit	964	738	+31%	693	+39%
OPM%	18%	17%	+100bps	18%	0 bps
Other Income	97	23	+322%	35	+177%
Interest	135	114	+18%	85	+59%
Depreciation	93	80	+16%	93	0%
PBT	833	567	+47%	551	+51%
Net Profit	1,114	445	+150%	1,181	−6%
PAT Margin	20%	11%	+978bps	31%	−1088bps
EPS (₹)	0.82	0.33	+148%	0.87	−6%

SWOT Analysis — Suzlon Energy

★ Strengths

~35% domestic market share — India's largest wind player
5.9 GW order book — strong multi-year revenue visibility
Net cash ₹2,384 Cr — debt-free balance sheet
18.1% EBITDA margin expanding toward 20%
O&M annuity business (15.7 GW fleet, 40%+ margins)
S144 platform — standardisation and execution efficiency

✕ Weaknesses

Low promoter stake (11.73%) — governance risk
India-concentration (~72% domestic capacity)
Debtor days rising to 130 (from 101)
FY26 PAT inflated by ₹742 Cr deferred tax — adjusted growth ~25%
Project completion lagging equipment deliveries

→ Opportunities

India 500 GW RE target by 2030 — massive pipeline
Hybrid FDRE projects (wind + solar + BESS)
Export ambition: 3 GW under Suzlon 2.0
Repowering cycle of ageing wind assets
BESS manufacturing by 2027
RE DevCo: 60% volume contribution by FY31

⚠ Threats

Grid connectivity delays across states
Solar + BESS increasingly competitive vs standalone wind
Vestas, GE Vernova entering Indian market
Valuation at 25x PE — any delivery miss = sharp de-rating
Raw material (steel) cost pressure

Analyst Consensus — 12-Month Targets

Brokerage	Rating	Target	Basis
Motilal Oswal	BUY	₹74	30x FY28E EPS
Geojit	BUY	₹77	38x FY27E EPS
ICICI Securities	BUY	₹65	32x FY28E EPS
JM Financial	BUY	₹64	25x FY28E EPS
Consensus Avg (13 analysts)	—	₹65.04	+11.2% from CMP ₹58.44

NHPC Limited — Q4FY26 Result Update

NSE: NHPC · Hydro / Renewable Utility · BUY · Target ₹90

Company Details

NHPC Limited

NSE: NHPC · Mini-Ratna PSU · Hydro Power · Face Value ₹10

₹75.94

CMP (18 Jun)

₹90

Target Price

+18.5%

Upside

₹76,282Cr

Market Cap

20.3x

P/E (FY26)

₹71.62–89.75

52W Range

India's largest hydro power generator. Regulated tariffs (CERC cost-plus), annuity-like cash flows. FY26 revenue +12% YoY to ₹11,615 Cr. PAT +25% YoY to ₹3,766 Cr (aided by Q4 deferred-tax write-back).

BUY

Shareholding — FY26

Government-Owned

Promoter (GoI) majority — stable, dividend PSU

GoI

62.5%

Institutions

16.2%

Public

21.3%

Key Risks

Capital-intensive D/E ~1.3x funding large capex pipeline
Hydrology risk — water-flow variability affects generation
High receivables from state discoms
Potential government divestment overhang

NHPC — Income Statement (Consolidated) ₹ Cr

Particulars	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26
Total Revenue	10,479	9,252	10,380	11,615
Revenue Growth YoY	—	−11.7%	+12.2%	+11.9%
EBITDA	8,250	8,216	6,872	6,309
EBITDA Margin	78.7%	88.8%	66.2%	54.3%
Finance Cost	1,784	2,413	1,189	1,423
Profit Before Tax	5,252	4,619	4,490	2,910
Tax	976	1,015	1,355	−327
PAT	3,903	3,596	3,007	3,766
PAT Margin	37.2%	38.9%	29.0%	32.4%
EPS (₹)	3.89	3.58	2.99	3.75

Q4FY26 Quarterly Results

Particulars	Q4FY26	Q3FY26	QoQ	Q4FY25	YoY
Sales	2,816	2,221	+27%	2,347	+20%
EBITDA	1,502	485	+210%	1,205	+25%
Interest	574	310	+85%	2,114	−73%
Depreciation	642	457	+40%	315	+104%
Tax	−1,823	573	—	247	—
Net Profit	1,460	219	+566%	854	+71%
PAT Margin	51.8%	9.9%	—	36.4%	—
EPS (₹)	1.45	0.22	+559%	0.85	+71%

Net Fixed Assets / Capex Build-out (₹ Cr)

FY23

₹53,475 Cr

FY24

₹62,244 Cr

FY25

₹73,668 Cr

FY26

₹85,020 Cr

Active Stock Recommendations — Performance Sheet

13 Active Picks · Entry Levels · Status · Stock Prices (29 May'26)

#	Date	Symbol	Entry Level	Target 1	Status T1	Target 2	Status T2	Price (29 May)
1	05 Dec'25	TANFAC	₹1,983.50	₹2,360	TARGET HIT	₹2,591	TARGET HIT	₹2,037.35
2	17 Dec'25	IRCON	Accum ₹144–₹150	₹170	TARGET HIT	₹182	ACTIVE	₹136.90
3	24 Dec'25	GMRAIRPORT	₹105.74	₹129	ACTIVE	₹154	ACTIVE	₹100.37
4	26 Dec'25	CHAMBLFERT	Accum ₹462–₹470	₹510	ACTIVE	₹587	ACTIVE	₹466.40
5	23 Jan'26	ITCHOTELS	Accum ₹175–₹180	₹199	ACTIVE	₹218	ACTIVE	₹154.85
6	03 Feb'26	INOXINDIA	₹1,112	₹1,532	TARGET HIT	₹1,865	ACTIVE	₹1,493.60
7	06 Feb'26	HFCL	Accum ₹65–₹71	₹89	TARGET HIT	N/A	—	₹179.94
8	05 Mar'26	MARUTI	₹14,158	₹17,533	ACTIVE	N/A	—	₹13,127
9	05 Mar'26	SUZLON★	₹39.93	₹75	ACTIVE	N/A	—	₹56.99
10	06 Apr'26	ETERNAL	₹231.99	₹320	ACTIVE	N/A	—	₹250.58
11	20 Apr'26	JIOFIN	Accum ₹225–₹235	₹332	ACTIVE	N/A	—	₹238.95
12	24 Apr'26	HCC	Accum ₹18.6–₹19.8	₹28.12	ACTIVE	N/A	—	₹22.81
13	30 Apr'26	HINDZINC★★	Accum ₹565–₹585	₹725	ACTIVE	N/A	—	₹632.95

★ SUZLON: Short-term profits booked at ₹46.41. ★★ HINDZINC: Short-term profits booked at ₹653.

Pick of the Month

Hindustan Construction Co.

NSE: HCC · CMP ₹23.51 · Target ₹28.12

₹6,058Cr

Market Cap

31.3x

TTM PE

₹13.65–₹31.42

52W Range

Nuclear EPC positioning: HCC contributed to ~60% of India's installed nuclear capacity. SHANTI Bill 2025 enables private/FDI participation. Target 100 GW nuclear by 2047. Deleveraging: Total debt ₹3,279 Cr (Mar'25) → ₹1,995 Cr (Apr'26). Rights issue 200% subscribed. CARE upgraded to BBB-stable. Target: ₹28.12 (17x FY28E P/E)

ACCUMULATE

Pick of the Month

BPCL

NSE: BPCL · CMP ₹292.10 · Target ₹358

₹1.28LCr

Market Cap

4.83x

FY26 PE

₹266.60–₹391.65

52W Range

Industry-leading refinery: 41.15 MMT throughput FY26 (116% utilisation), GRM $11.74/bbl. Capex pipeline: Bina + Mumbai PRFCC + Kochi PP + AP Refinery. D/E 0.11 — strong. Gas growth: +26.5% volume, CNG +62.1% YoY. Target: ₹358 (6x FY28E EPS) — 23–30% upside. Horizon 15–18 months.

ACCUMULATE ₹275–₹290

⤓ Download Stocks-to-Watch digest (PDF)

Top 20 Indian Stocks — June 2026

Conservative · ₹50L Corpus · Capex / Infra / Defence Theme · 50% Tilt

Total Corpus

₹50L

Fresh deployment

Stocks

Across 10 sectors

Theme Tilt

50%

Capex/Infra/Defence

Stability Anchor

50%

Large-cap compounders

Risk Profile

CONS

Large-cap tilt

Nifty 50 (Date)

24,168

18 Jun 2026

Allocation by Sector

Banking / Financials

22%

Capital Goods / Industrials

20%

Defence

12%

Power / Utilities

10%

FMCG

Energy / Conglomerate

Telecom

Cement / Materials

Infra / Logistics

#	Stock	Sector	Theme	CMP*	Amount (₹)	Weight	Investment Logic
1	Larsen & Toubro NSE: LT	Capital Goods	Capex	₹3,720	₹4,00,000	8.0%	Record order book; infra/EPC/defence proxy; public capex cycle direct beneficiary
2	HDFC Bank NSE: HDFCBANK	Banking	Anchor	₹770	₹3,50,000	7.0%	Best-in-class private bank; low NPAs; portfolio's primary stability ballast
3	ICICI Bank NSE: ICICIBANK	Banking	Anchor	₹1,450	₹3,00,000	6.0%	Consistent ROA/ROE; expanding digital franchise; clean balance sheet
4	Reliance Industries NSE: RELIANCE	Energy/Conglomerate	Anchor	₹1,329	₹3,00,000	6.0%	Diversified: energy + retail + Jio + new-energy capex; multiple engines
5	Bharat Electronics NSE: BEL	Defence	Capex	₹420	₹3,00,000	6.0%	~₹75,000 Cr order book; radars + EW + battlefield systems; indigenisation mandated
6	Hindustan Aeronautics NSE: HAL	Defence	Capex	₹4,850	₹3,00,000	6.0%	₹48,000 Cr Tejas Mk-1A + helicopters; monopoly military aerospace position
7	Bharti Airtel NSE: BHARTIARTL	Telecom	Anchor	₹1,920	₹2,50,000	5.0%	Rising ARPU; two-player market structure; defensive compounder with pricing power
8	State Bank of India NSE: SBIN	Banking (PSU)	Anchor	₹860	₹2,50,000	5.0%	Improved asset quality; infra-financing play; attractive valuation vs private peers
9	NTPC NSE: NTPC	Power/Utilities	Capex	₹405	₹2,50,000	5.0%	Largest power generator scaling renewables; regulated returns + dividend cushion
10	Power Grid Corp. NSE: POWERGRID	Power/Utilities	Capex	₹295	₹2,50,000	5.0%	Transmission monopoly; annuity cash flows; healthy dividend; grid expansion play
11	UltraTech Cement NSE: ULTRACEMCO	Cement/Materials	Capex	₹11,466	₹2,50,000	5.0%	Market-leading cement; infra and housing demand capture; capacity consolidation
12	Siemens India NSE: SIEMENS	Capital Goods	Capex	₹3,150	₹2,50,000	5.0%	Electrification + automation + rail capex play; industrial top-pick
13	TCS NSE: TCS	IT	Anchor	₹3,450	₹2,50,000	5.0%	Global IT leader; deep cash generation; high dividends; low-beta counterweight
14	Hindustan Unilever NSE: HINDUNILVR	FMCG	Anchor	₹2,380	₹2,00,000	4.0%	Defensive consumption compounder; rural-recovery leverage; low-beta ballast
15	ITC NSE: ITC	FMCG	Anchor	₹430	₹2,00,000	4.0%	High dividend yield; cigarettes-FMCG-hotels model; income cushion
16	Kotak Mahindra Bank NSE: KOTAKBANK	Banking	Anchor	₹1,980	₹2,00,000	4.0%	Conservatively run; strong capital adequacy; high-quality financials diversification
17	ABB India NSE: ABB	Capital Goods	Capex	₹5,650	₹2,00,000	4.0%	Automation + electrification leader; strong order inflows tied to capex revival
18	Cummins India NSE: CUMMINSIND	Capital Goods	Capex	₹3,480	₹1,50,000	3.0%	Power-gen demand from data centres + infra + exports; cash-rich, solid dividend
19	Adani Ports & SEZ NSE: ADANIPORTS	Infra/Logistics	Capex	₹1,420	₹1,50,000	3.0%	Largest private port; logistics-infra play; rising cargo throughput
20	Infosys NSE: INFY	IT	Anchor	₹1,580	₹2,00,000	4.0%	Second IT anchor; high dividend; AI/cloud deal pipeline; earnings stability
TOTAL ALLOCATION					₹50,00,000	100.0%

*Indicative prices as of report month — verify live on NSE/BSE before investing. Approximate shares are illustrative. Deploy in 3–4 staggered tranches through the month.

Market Context — June 2026

Indian benchmarks are firm (Nifty ~24,168) on a 5-day winning streak, helped by softer Brent crude (~$77) and strong banks. The RBI holds repo at 5.25% with neutral stance. For a conservative fresh-deployment book, the strategy is to anchor in high-quality large-cap compounders while tilting ~50% toward the structural capex–infra–defence cycle. BEL order book ₹75k Cr, HAL Tejas pipeline, ₹6.21L Cr defence budget, and power-grid spending provide multi-year earnings visibility.

IT Sector Deep-Dive — 10 Stocks · 2025 → 2026 Trend

Nifty IT Constituents · Calendar-Year 2025 vs 2026 Year-to-Date · Tier-1 & Midcap

Nifty IT Index

28,263

▼ −24% YTD'26 · −24.4% 1Y

CY2025 Return

−18%

Worst sector of 2025

CY2026 — Till Date

−24%

vs Nifty 50 ≈ −5%

US Revenue Mix

>50%

Tariff · H-1B · AI exposure

Best vs Worst · 1Y

Coforge

+11.5% · TCS −42%

Tier-1 · Large-Cap IT

Company	Symbol	CMP (Jun'26)	2026 YTD	12-Month	Read
Tata Consultancy Services	NSE: TCS	₹2,068	−33%	−42%	Largest; at 52W low, ~5% yield
Infosys	NSE: INFY	~₹1,440	−27%	−30%	2nd anchor; deal pipeline intact
HCL Technologies	NSE: HCLTECH	~₹1,160	−30%	−33%	Products + ER&D drag
Wipro	NSE: WIPRO	~₹235	−31%	−34%	Weakest large-cap; growth lag
Tech Mahindra	NSE: TECHM	~₹1,435	−7%	−12%	Most resilient; turnaround bet

Tier-2 · Midcap IT

Company	Symbol	CMP (Jun'26)	2026 YTD	12-Month	Read
LTIMindtree	NSE: LTIM	₹4,068	~−28%	−21.5%	Merger synergies still maturing
Coforge	NSE: COFORGE	₹1,758	~−8%	+11.5%	Only 1Y gainer; best momentum
Persistent Systems	NSE: PERSISTENT	~₹4,400	~−12%	~−5%	'25 outperformer; rich multiple
Mphasis	NSE: MPHASIS	₹2,776	~−10%	−0.5%	Flat 1Y; BFSI-heavy, steady
L&T Technology Services	NSE: LTTS	₹4,089	~−18%	−21.2%	Pure-play ER&D; cyclical

CMP & returns compiled from public sources (NSE/BSE · Screener · BusinessToday · Business Standard) mid-June 2026. Tier-1 2026-YTD per BusinessToday (08 Jun '26); index returns per Business Standard. Figures marked “~” are indicative estimates pending verification — not for execution.

"From the worst-performing sector of 2025 (−18%) to a 24% slide in 2026 so far, Indian IT has been re-rated lower on three fears at once — AI automating code, a US slowdown (Accenture's June guidance cut), and tariff / H-1B friction on the 50%+ of revenue that comes from America."

IT Sector Trend · CY2025 → June 2026

The Trend in One Line

A Two-Year De-Rating

CY2025 −18% → CY2026 −24% YTD · sector PE compressed

−33%

TCS · 26 YTD

−7%

Tech M · best L-cap

+11.5%

Coforge · best 1Y

Large-caps led the fall — TCS, Wipro, HCL and Infosys all down 27–33% in 2026 as AI-disruption fear meets weak US discretionary spend. Tech Mahindra held up best on its margin-turnaround story; Coforge was the lone 12-month gainer. Valuations have compressed toward multi-year lows (TCS ~16x PE, ~5% yield).

SELECTIVE / VALUE

What to Watch

Catalysts & Risks

Triggers that decide the next leg

$2.3B

TCS AI run-rate

₹95

USD/INR tailwind

Q1FY27

Next prints

Upside: AI revenue ramp (TCS annualised AI > $2.3B), a weak rupee (₹95/$) boosting margins, and any recovery in US enterprise spend. Downside: further Accenture-style guidance cuts, H-1B / tariff escalation, and the structural question of whether AI compresses the people-led services model. Stance: quality + dividend yield over momentum.

ACCUMULATE ON WEAKNESS

Commodities & Currency

Gold · Silver · Crude · USDINR · GBPINR

Gold (1gm) ₹

₹15,638

+4.07% 1M·−1.70% 3M·+61.87% 1Y

Silver (1kg) ₹

₹2,63,143

+9.62% 1M·−1.32% 3M·+169.79% 1Y

Brent Crude $

$92.92

−18.50% 1M·+28.20% 3M·+45.41% 1Y

USD/INR

₹95.01

+0.11% 1M·+4.32% 3M·+11.09% 1Y

GBP/INR

₹127.80

−1.02% 1M·+4.05% 3M·+11.01% 1Y

Aluminium (1kg)

₹389

+5.42% 1M·+23.10% 3M·+64.14% 1Y

DISCLAIMER — READ CAREFULLY

This Stock Market Playbook is prepared for personal research and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a SEBI research report, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. All data is sourced from publicly available information including company filings, exchange data, and analyst research compiled at the time of report preparation. Indicative prices and target prices are based on third-party research and must be independently verified. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities prices can fall as well as rise. The author is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from use of this material. Consult a qualified SEBI-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions. For Dubai/UAE residents: This is personal research prepared for educational purposes. Aziz Saif is a UAE-based AI implementation consultant — not a financial adviser. All investment decisions remain solely with the individual investor.

Sources: Public company filings · NSE/BSE · JRK Research Monthly Insights (May 2026) · Screener · Yahoo Finance · SEBI · PIB · RBI · CGA

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India in aRisk-Off Storm.Macro Bets Still Win.

The Relief Rally Died. Now Comes the Reckoning.

What Broke Since July

Into the 5 August MPC

IT — A Structural De-Rating Not a dip

Pharma — Tariff Overhang Unresolved

Starter Basket — Ten Names Screened on Five Tests

Bench — Good Names Left Out

How to Deploy From Here

If You Are Investing From the UAE

Relief Rally — India Rebounds as Foreign Buyers Return.

What Changed Since June

Macro & RBI

Q1 FY27 Earnings Season — Early Read

Report Dashboard

Download the Reports

Stock Market Playbook — June 2026

Jio — All Companies

Suzlon Energy — Q4FY26

NHPC Limited — Q4FY26

Top 20 Indian Stocks — June 2026

Indian Market Outlook

Global Markets Snapshot

India's Key Macroeconomic Highlights

India Macroeconomic Highlights

Policy Rates (RBI — June 2026)

Key Economic Updates

FPI / DII Activity — May 2026

Sectoral Performance — May 2026

Suzlon Energy — Q4FY26 Result Update

Suzlon's Record Year:54% Revenue Growth,Net Cash, "Suzlon 2.0"

Suzlon Energy

Shareholder Mix

Income Statement — ₹ Cr

Q4FY26 Quarterly Income Statement

SWOT Analysis — Suzlon Energy

★ Strengths

✕ Weaknesses

→ Opportunities

⚠ Threats

Analyst Consensus — 12-Month Targets

NHPC Limited — Q4FY26 Result Update

NHPC Limited

Government-Owned

NHPC — Income Statement (Consolidated) ₹ Cr

Q4FY26 Quarterly Results

Net Fixed Assets / Capex Build-out (₹ Cr)

Active Stock Recommendations — Performance Sheet

Hindustan Construction Co.

BPCL

Top 20 Indian Stocks — June 2026

Allocation by Sector

IT Sector Deep-Dive — 10 Stocks · 2025 → 2026 Trend

Tier-1 · Large-Cap IT

Tier-2 · Midcap IT

A Two-Year De-Rating

Catalysts & Risks

Commodities & Currency

India in a
Risk-Off Storm.
Macro Bets Still Win.

Suzlon's Record Year:
54% Revenue Growth,
Net Cash, "Suzlon 2.0"